The French economy has continued to slow since 2017, at which point it had grown by 2.2% compared with 2016. This year's growth should precede a return to 1.4% growth in 2020 followed by 1.5% in 2021. Globally speaking, 2019 should prove the trough of the cycle; a rebound of 3.5% per year is expected as of 2020, versus 3.2% this year. However, this rebound depends heavily on emerging and developing countries, which are structurally more fragile than developed countries. This fragility might be accentuated by the uncertainty and exchange rate compression resulting from the Chinese-American trade war.